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Chris' SpaceLatest blogs from Chris Hsieh Welcome to Chris' Space! Please feel free to drop me a line of your ideas about the blog. 25.4.2007 My 31st Birthday Weekend不知不覺31歲耶,雖然我很少慶祝生日,在家裡頂多跟家人出去吃個飯,而且家裡生日都過農曆的,自己常常也忘了。今年自己在新加坡, 原本只是單純的想找個名目邀些同事朋友一起在Friday night瘋一下,沒想到一連串的surprises成為我難忘的回憶。 - 3月23日(生日前晚):謝謝Oli送我上面簽上的許多在不同國家的同事祝福的生日卡片,還有好久不見的Darren,我的最佳drinking buddies - Kuya Jake還有Kuya Chee Hwee陪我玩到最後,即是很累了...Chee Hwee知道我沒吃晚餐甚至還買在半夜弄了碗Tom Yum來幫我醒酒...還有Erika和Nikki特別準備的party還有禮物...離開新加坡這些同事及朋友應該是我最捨不得又難忘的吧! - 3月24日(生日當天):凌晨才回到家,還沒睡飽就趕著飛機飛到香港,原本在香港的interview取消了,還小擔心了一下,幸好在去機場的途中收到了一封Email說明著取消的原因,最近很多事情煩著,心想既然原本就跟Roger和Florence約好要去香港, 就去過個weekend吧!雖說之前有"提醒"了Florence關於我生日的到來,卻沒想到她還真的去排隊給我買了個蛋糕,原本我還以為她去shopping才讓我跟Roger等了這麼久,當餐廳小姐端出蛋糕我還想說 - "哇,沒想到香港的<和民>會有如此周到的服務還附送個生日蛋糕咧!" ,原來他跟Nikki(另外一位)是為了安排這些才遲到的。謝謝Roger、Florence 及 Nikki 陪我度過了一個愉快的生日...Florence、Nikki,以後到香港就得靠妳們多多照顧囉! - 3月25日(生日後一天):跟Roger走了一天的路與Jenny和她的朋友吃飽喝足後,回到Ritz-Carlton居然看到兩杯白酒和一個Tiramisu擺在桌上,卡片裡簽了hotel guest service人的名字,雖然遲了一天,總是還是覺的蠻溫馨的...(即便我們也花了不少$$在這hotel) 在這個weekend,讓我過了一個充滿驚喜31歲的生日!! 18.4.2006 Enlightened CardsIn Chinese, "Enlightened Cards" are used to be the draw from the temple that people wish the spirits of divinities to enlighten them or cave a brighter way in their life with a slip of bamboo engraved with signs. Nowadays, people use "Enlightened Cards" to describe from stock picks to horseracing betting picks. No matter being superstitious or not, everyone is hoping to get these "cards" from everywhere - friends, relatives, and media, etc. Here is the card that I got lately... 20.2.2006 Talking about Health Savings Accounts: a windfall for U.S. Banks....A disaster for society?
Quote Health Savings Accounts: a windfall for U.S. Banks....A disaster for society? 28.12.2005 Managing Default Risks in a Legislative Way?Taiwanese financial stocks has been underperformed lately due to the new Banking Act amendment earlier this month. Taiwanese legislature passed a new bill to cap the unsecured loans - specific to credit-card and cash-card (the card with a credit line you could withdraw cash from ATM directly) loans. 30.10.2005 The Blue MagicBlue Man Group are founded by three friends - Matt Goldman, Phil Stanton, and Chris Wink in 1987. They are called as "Experimental Musical Theatre Troupe" rather than as a group of singers or band since they never really sing or speak on the stage. I watched a DVD of The Complex Rock Tour Live from them over the weekend. That was really interesting. Although I have seen their performance couple of years ago at Astor Place Theatre in New York, the concert on the DVD is really different from I have seen or would expect in an off-Broadway show or in a rock concert. Actually I would say it would be more like an interactive rock concert - which gave me a mix of off-Broadway performance as well as a rock concert. In the concert, they created the "Rock concert movements", such as "#1 The basic head bob", "#2 The one armed first pump", and "The fake ending", which interacted with the audiences. And the stage design was really amazing. They had the band wear the neon-lighted shirts to bring out their neon blue skin in the dark. They used airpoles (fiberglass rod), tubes, and some other non-traditional instruments through out the concert. What struck me most was they hammered the strings in a grand piano and played like a bass drum. Gee, I wouldn't even think that piano could be played in that way! The most familiar songs they played in the concert could be the theme song of Terminator 3 - "The Current". They recently also dubbed in the background music for a FOX animation, Robots. If you haven't seen any performance of Blue Man Group, I would strongly recommend you to check it out. And the DVD would give you an idea of their performance style - and definitely a bargain versus their never-discount live performance tickets. 27.10.2005 Correlation risksConvergence trading (also known as market neutral or pair trading) is one of the most popular arbitrage trading strategy. The concept of the strategy is fairly simple. They rely on the relative values of pair trades and betting on the convergence of the pairs.
From the experience the traders who bought an instrument and tried to reduce the risks by selling a "highly correlated" one (or ones) against it, only to discover that the pairs they chose were diverging from each other. Therefore, the unexpected correlation risks makes the trade fairly difficult to manage. Even the PhD quants team had done thousands of regression or simulation analyses, there are always unexpected events and irrational market turbulence which would break the correlation of the pairs. Since the trading strategy is popular in hedge fund industry, increasingly product providers such as investment banks turn to the hedge funds as another channel for distributing and recycling these positions. Many of the houses have been building up hedge fund sales teams over the past year, targeting a small but growing number of hedge fund managers focusing on volatility and correlation trading strategies. Investment banks provides volatility swaps/variance swaps for their hedge fund clients to hedge against their volatility risks. For correlation risks, they use their booking management to hedge with dispersion trades as well as correlation swaps. In the case of correlation swaps, the correlation risks of the trades could be swapped out, although the downside in using of the swaps versus dispersion trades is the relative illiquid market leading to their wider bid-offer spreads. 24.10.2005 Trip to ItalyJust came back from a 10-day trip in Italy. Very exhausted but was really amazed by the preservation of all the historical relics as well as the Italian scenery on the road. Luckily, during the stay in Italy, the weather couldn't be nicer. Breezing and sunny weather accompanied us all the way from Capri to Lago Maggiore. As soon as we headed to the airport on the last day, it started to rain. Drinking and eating a lot in every meals, life couldn't be easier! The only complain I would probably have could be not being able to spend more days there which made the trip really exhausted - my both legs couldn't hang on all the way without Bengay every night. See more photos from my trip on my photo album (the resolution has been adjusted for the size of the files; original photos were taken with Leica C1 point-and-shoot camera and Kodak ISO 400 films). 2.10.2005 Alleycat's PizzaCan't wait to set off the trip to Italy, already started looking for something with Italian flavor. Sometimes I found sometimes it's not easy to find a nice pizza place in Taipei with a reasonable price. Last Friday evening, I found one of them just around the corner where I am staying. I passed the place several time. It looks spooky from outside, but the foods are absolutely great, especially the pizza. Alleycat's Pizza 28.9.2005 Sports websites
Have you ever had a chance to check out any of the sports website lately? If you are a hardcore sports fan, you would be amazed by the information that technology could bring to you today, most importantly - lots of them are free of charge!! 27.9.2005 Risks for digital optionsMany risk managers monitor the sensitivities breach to control the derivatives risks. Also many of them use VaR to estimate their exposure (also see more on Dr. Didier Joannas' blog - "Value at Risk: use of proxy instruments"). But sometimes those might not be enough for the exotic instruments to effectively managing their risks. Take one of the most common exotic options, digital option, as an example. Digital option - Also known as binary or bet options, where have a discontinuous payoff. Some people used to say it's the training ground for a trader to learn more about advanced hedging. And it could also be used to test out a risk manager for more advanced skills. One of the reasons if you had a chance to look into its sensitivities/Greeks, digital option's delta is actually the gamma of a vanilla option (see more on "Dynamic Hedging" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb). That means integrating the delta of digital options with those of the vanilla options (with same underlying assets) and looking at the breach to see if the traders are managing the book properly could not be appropriate. Instead, these options should be monitored separately with other vanilla options as the hedging methods are different from the regular first-order instruments. The discontinuous payoff makes this type of option difficult to hedge by using the traditional structure in a continuous payoff instrument. The best way to hedge it as Taleb suggested is using a call spread (also known as "risk reversal") to replicate the digital option. But the actual trading usually need to delta hedge a sizable position (by tightening the spread) when the price near the strike as expiration approaches. That means it'd make the traders need to bet in one direction of the trade. Therefore for risk control, the size of the option cannot be too big. The liquidity risk should be taken into account. As Steve Allen suggested in his book "Financial Risk Management", risk managers could use limits and reserve to set up risk control points for digital options. The limits should be placed on sensitivities (delta/gamma) for each bucket based on strikes and maturities as well as the size of the option which is more like a lose limit. The reserve is the value difference between the replicated call spread and the real digital option. It can be set and to be used against the cost due to the liquidity while managing the basis risk (or "pin risk"). For modern risk management, my advice would be before jumping into calculating the sensitivities or VaR always knowing the products first as the risk management processes always go from knowing the products, identifying the risks, then risk measurement, setting control/policy, monitoring/testing, risk allocation/budgeting, and lastly risk reporting/disclosure. Fancy calculation or methodologies do not always give us an answer of effective risk control. I think every products and markets should have their own particular risks. Best risk management method would not be exactly the same for all. So, who says risk management is dull and boring? It definitely needs some creative minds. 20.9.2005 Looking at quanto hedging in Taiwan - better than China?Previously, we discussed about the structured products and their problem of hedging against the risks in China. What about Taiwan? 19.9.2005 Structured Products in ChinaIn the September issue of "Asia Risk", there was an article discussed about the recent booming of structured products in Chinese markets. Has the time for Chinese structured products come yet? According to the article, the products offer to the market had been mainly denominated in foreign currency. Until recently, China Everbright Bank issued its first Renminbi-denominated structured deposit. This one-year product linked to CNY/USD exchange rate with principal protection and will be paid off in CNY. The quanto instrument (instruments pay off in one currency based on a rate/index earned in another currency) might be a type of products with demand. But with the current Chinese regulation, RMB is still not fully convertible. Plus lack of proper derivatives markets and instruments to hedge the risks. Without those, most of the banks' concerns - risks, might not be easily eliminated. Therefore, I personally wouldn't think the RMB-denominated structured products would soon fly high after this first-ever breakthrough. How is China Everbright Bank going to hedge this product? I honestly don't know. Maybe the ability to hedge the product is more of a political issue rather than a finance one? 16.9.2005 Talking about TypoglycemiaFrom Andrea - Diary of Insomniac Quote Typoglycemia 15.9.2005 Have fun! PowerToys are here!!Also from The Space Craft Tweak UI PowerToy: http://spaces.msn.com/members/thespacecraft/Blog/cns!1pBU8QRvZvOfXG4QTjpv_GFg!127.entry Custom HTML PowerToy: http://spaces.msn.com/members/thespacecraft/Blog/cns!1pBU8QRvZvOfXG4QTjpv_GFg!126.entry Windows Media Player PowerToy: http://spaces.msn.com/members/thespacecraft/Blog/cns!1pBU8QRvZvOfXG4QTjpv_GFg!105.entry
Talking about MSN Alerts PowerToy Quote MSN Alerts PowerToy 14.9.2005 A Late Fair Game: Withholding Tax for Structured Products in TaiwanThe discussion in regard to the tax treatment on structured products was finally concluded couple of weeks ago. Although the actual tax rate hasn't been decided yet, Ministry of Finance and Banking Bureau (formerly known as BoMA) have preliminarily proposed to charge a unified withholding tax on structured products issued by banks, insurance companies, and securities firms. With the current tax structure, the structured products are taxed when they are issued by the securities firms only. When these products are issued by the banks, they would usually be bundled as deposit, and the profits will be treated as interests income which are exempted from tax if they are under NT$270K or denominated in foreign currency. If the products are issued by the insurance companies, they could be classified as insurance expense and are wholly exempted from any tax charges. This creates difficulty for securities firms to market their products at the current environment. In 2004, there were US$15 billion structured products transactions from banks and insurance companies in Taiwan versus US$600 million from the securities firms.
Now this late fair game would begin, it'll be a time to really test out everyone's product differential and development knowledge…or maybe even more important - the distribution channels.
12.9.2005 Queuing CultureI went to a Japanese fried cutlet restaurant on Saturday's evening. There was a long queue. My friend and I had to wait almost 30 minutes to get in and was rushed out immediately right after my last bite of the dessert. Went to Taipei 101 and stood in a line for 40 minutes to just get a donut. Got a movie ticket - another 20 minutes. Do a simple calc, I spent 1.5 hr in that evening to WAIT. Since when Taipei has become a place of queuing? Talk about queuing, there's one country has to be mentioned - Japan. Couple of years ago, I went to Tsukiji, the world largest fish market, in Tokyo to have the "mouth-jumping" fresh sushi. It was a freezing Saturday morning in February, we waited for an hour before getting to this 10-seat sushi bar. I felt sorry for my friend's wife, who was pregnant at the time and also stood in the line with us. I looked around there were couple of other restaurants opened without any queue or even any customers. My friend told me most of the people in Japan find a place to eat out according to friends, media, or most commonly - queue - depends on how long the queue was you could pretty much have an idea how good it was. Was that sushi bar truly that good to queue in a line for an hour? Maybe yes, that was probably the best sushi I've ever tried in my life and was a bargain, but on the other hand an hour waiting to eat could be somewhat inefficient. If time permits, I definitely wouldn't mind waiting to have something really great. In a country where the government once encourage its citizens to walk faster in order to increase GDP, the time taken in the queue were surprisingly neglected. I am having déjà vu in Taipei - crowds standing in the queue almost for everything. Some business strategy/tricks even worsen the case - no reservation allowed, limited sale, etc. I seldom see any restaurants in Taipei would give early bird specials, which might attract some people like me who hate to wait in the queue and divert the crowds. Talking about being more productive, then start avoiding the queue first!! Business initiative? Try to sell something while people waiting in the queue and apply some queuing theory in the business - that'd be the "Blue Ocean Strategy". Talking about www.linkedIn.com : Communities over the internetFrom Didier's Blog - Finance and Technology Quote www.linkedIn.com : Communities over the internet |
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